Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 58397.750363 61836.316419 65280.570015 68986.642814 72858.945036 76782.781097 81056.657977
2024-10-27 52522.982499 57745.042293 63129.348915 69087.059808 75485.737695 82142.748147 89583.256302
2024-11-03 49116.421114 55605.173567 62447.180240 70181.306355 78662.436930 87661.304862 97912.804616
2024-11-10 46357.585700 53791.520421 61778.556958 70968.226438 81218.894325 92270.668000 105055.665145
2024-11-17 43868.504551 52027.292921 60939.291501 71353.129131 83142.468185 96029.307545 111134.042582
2024-11-24 41524.187138 50242.822641 59911.189221 71368.353315 84512.564977 99058.096943 116306.677181
2024-12-01 39672.028100 48891.265770 59256.702251 71697.127029 86141.574721 102302.927788 121667.422087
2024-12-08 37869.821463 47489.181920 58446.157724 71754.346948 87380.072372 105042.476656 126408.966162
2024-12-15 36802.201933 46884.100642 58503.780729 72768.941292 89686.429776 108983.250254 132525.357754
2024-12-22 35197.349463 45556.643293 57637.614853 72628.396193 90583.405535 111247.886431 136669.140665
2024-12-29 34410.235184 45174.480408 57860.374674 73751.685456 92952.470417 115225.315179 142825.417372
2025-01-05 33475.329140 44563.952481 57767.354703 74460.395841 94801.697574 118577.608047 148247.505434
2025-01-12 32246.736437 43557.517069 57170.501905 74546.778479 95906.610064 121068.656925 152694.238635
2025-01-19 30948.990896 42417.308461 56368.114973 74345.380693 96635.648728 123096.092661 156588.063926
2025-01-26 30362.769240 42153.011668 56631.204825 75444.159535 98947.394491 127034.876947 162803.694682
2025-02-02 29687.444870 41744.148698 56687.945097 76265.620161 100905.742426 130544.582743 168513.582648
2025-02-09 28864.521471 41111.221940 56432.980247 76670.881655 102330.192284 133395.444995 173425.996757
2025-02-16 27915.717130 40278.888406 55892.686446 76686.528916 103245.472758 135607.925130 177553.807965
2025-02-23 27163.381903 39679.747303 55628.803488 77034.632407 104565.215967 138315.085385 182298.248435
2025-03-02 26329.149039 38942.272714 55159.563666 77095.212362 105502.765160 140537.725221 186442.975669
2025-03-09 25956.826059 38814.584831 55477.412417 78169.620076 107734.650395 144388.372472 192640.343485
2025-03-16 25108.842700 38009.759206 54876.455469 78020.798451 108377.030829 146229.813593 196318.401857
2025-03-23 24829.655910 37977.797719 55295.589695 79210.139579 110752.129771 150273.322526 202794.649951